A climate change warning from the American Meteorological society

The American Meteorological Society issued the following statement in its Monthly Weather Review:

The Arctic Ocean is warming up. Icebergs are growing scarcer in some places and the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report from the Commerce Department at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, … explorers all over point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report scarcely any ice as far north as 81 degrees. Soundings show the Gulf Stream very warm; masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones…. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt, the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

Climate change alarmists should welcome this report as a confirmation of their views from an authoritative source. The only problem is that it was issued in November, 1922.

Reliance on extrapolation of recent trends in climate based on short time periods to forecast future developments usually leads to incorrect conclusions. For example, extrapolating the temperature trend from May through August is not a great way of forecasting what will happen to temperatures from September through February. Climate variations must be studied over long enough time periods to determine whether the observed behavior is something truly new or is cyclical. If the latter, it is then necessary to ascertain what phase of the cycle we are in.

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